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Country DNA

April 25, 2017

Nowadays nothing can be taken for granted. Not only investors need to check the stats but they need to make sure country is capable for maintaining the path. Sovereign ratings can be helpful, although not reliable. Country can be rated BBB and could be downgraded easily to BB or lower at once. To understand how credible is county's development I suggest to look into its DNA, hereditary material which than can develop a growth or fall, or anything else. Unlike human DNA the country's one is artificially created and possible to change, improve and develop. That's why I suggest the modern investors shall be looking into social-economic development indices more than into economic stats. However, it is also true any specific index could be biased because of many different reasons. My suggestion is to have a look on set of them rather on any specific index.

 

Below I put three countries - Transcaucasia - it may give a good capture where the region is gonna be in 10 years.

 

Chart 1. Set of Development Indices (higher figure means lower ranking among 200 countries)

 

It shows what could be our expectations out of South Caucasus. It seems Georgia has been developing well, or it was pushed into it, country does not have much natural resources, either it enjoys friendship with its biggest neighbour. While Azerbaijan can still support its statehood because of oil revenues, however the latest crisis gave a good lesson and the needs of changes are realized. And Armenia is doing good job, victory euphoria is gone and the development needs are well understood.

 

Every country has its own priorities and a chart below gives good look over them.

 

Chart 2. Development Indices (below 0 shows low scores

 

For Georgia economic development is the key issue. Of course it is important to maintain and continue build up of the institutions, foreign policy, and etc, however country needs Focus on its economic developments, especially now when it is in favorable conditions.

 

Armenia is picking up well, I guess it needs to open up more and do not be afraid of rapid changes. 

 

Azerbaijan is getting on the track, it enjoys big safety bag but we all know it does not guarantee anything. I, myself trust Azeri people and their abilities.

 

Nevertheless, everything starts from understanding of the weaknesses. There might not be a pain or visible abnormality but it does not mean we are strong in everything. It only means we are strong currently and can handle the hereditary problems but unless we tackle them things can get ugly in future.

 

Chart 2. Development Indices (same development indices are given. below 0 shows low scores

 

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